NY-21, the giant US congressional district in northeastern NY now held by Bill Owens, will likely go Republican this fall unless things change quickly. The state of the race, at the moment, is like this.
For the Democrats, we have Aaron Woolf, a likable progressive political-newcomer, who is a wealthy organic grocer and film-maker from the far-off Brooklyn. At one time he wrote songs for Phish. He has a summer home in the district, and changed his registration to the district a couple of days before appearing out of nowhere to getting the nod from district Democratic party county leaders. He also resigned his seat on the board of the Adirondack Council at this time (politically a good move, since close alignment to an environmental group will lose you more votes than gain in this district). His roots in the district are very shallow.
Woolf has, so far, conducted a stealth-campaign. Few visits to public events, little interaction with the media, little information on substantive issues. The first month after the announcement of his candidacy, the press has been brutal. Apparently there has still not been an official campaign kickoff. In the last week, Mr. Woolf has become more available to the press, as in here, or here , and here.
My take - he is genial, and voicing vague platitudes that reflect little understanding yet of the district. Where he is specific, he is being fed local issues from local Democratic Party leaders without understanding the implications. For example, he says he supports a new interstate across the St. Lawrence Valley. A pet project of the Democratic leadership in St. Lawrence County (because of hopes it would generate unionized construction jobs), it is recognized by most on the left AND right as economically and politically impossible, unneeded, and undesirable. To advocate for this indicates either naivety or pandering.
Woolf's two main opponents, vying for the Republican nod, are Elise Stefanik and three-time loser Matt Doheny. It appears to me that Doheny has only limited support, in Jefferson County, and that is eroding quickly in the face of Stefanik's effective campaigning. He will soon be a fourth-time loser.
Elise Stefanik, a wealthy and politically-connected carpet-bagger is running for her first office. Like Woolf, her roots in the district are very shallow, and she recently changed her voting district in anticipation for the campaign. Unlike Woolf, she is in the papers nearly every day with a positive story showing engagement with the press, voters, and opinion-makers of the district. Here is a representative example.
Compare Stefanik's official website to Woolf's official website. I wonder whether the national Democratic Party has given up on this seat. Certainly doesn't appear that he is receiving the support and coaching that Stefanik is. If things don't change in terms of campaign strategy and energy soon on Woolf's part, Elise Stefanik will be the next congressman from NY-21, and we will be one seat fewer in the House of Representatives.
